Why Most Retirement Advice Is Wrong (And What Balmain Pre-Retirees Should Do Instead)

You’ve done everything “right.”

You’ve been putting money into super for decades. You’ve paid down the mortgage. You’ve maybe even seen a financial planner or two over the years.

But somehow, you still don’t feel ready to retire.

You read articles about retirement planning. You listen to podcasts. You attend seminars. And every expert seems to contradict the last one.

“Max out your super!”

“Don’t touch your super until 67!”

“You need growth assets!”

“Shift to conservative investments!”

“Downsize your home!”

“Never sell your home!”

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: Most retirement advice you’re getting is wrong.

Not because the advisers are lying. Not because the information is technically incorrect. But because it’s generic advice for generic people – and you’re not generic.

As someone who’s helped hundreds of Balmain and Inner West locals navigate pre-retirement, I can tell you this: The advice that works for a 35-year-old in Melbourne is completely useless for a 58-year-old homeowner in Rozelle.

Let me show you where most retirement advice goes wrong – and what you should do instead.

The Problem with “One-Size-Fits-All” Retirement Advice

Walk into most financial planning offices and you’ll get The Formula:

“Contribute 15% of your income to super. Invest in a balanced portfolio. Retire at 67 with $1.5 million. Simple!”

Except it’s not simple. And for most Balmain pre-retirees aged 50-65, it’s completely wrong.

Why?

Because generic advice ignores:

  • The equity you’ve built in your Balmain home
  • Your specific Age Pension situation
  • Your actual lifestyle costs (not some national average)
  • Whether you want to retire at 60, 65, or 70
  • Your health, family situation, and personal goals

It’s like getting a prescription without the doctor examining you first.

Sure, the medicine might work for someone. Just probably not you.

Retirement Advice Mistake #1: “Focus on Accumulation”

What they say:

“Keep building your super balance! The bigger the number, the better!”

Why it’s wrong for you:

If you’re 55-60, you don’t need accumulation advice. You need income strategy advice.

The question isn’t “How do I grow my super to $2 million?”

The question is “How do I turn my $650,000 into reliable income for the next 30 years?”

Big difference.

Most financial advice is written for 30-year-olds with 35 years until retirement. But you’re 10-15 years out. You need a completely different playbook.

What to do instead:

Shift your focus from net worth to income.

Instead of asking “How much is my super worth?” ask “How much income can my super generate?”

“Retirement Income vs Lump Sum”

A $700,000 super balance invested for income can generate $40,000-$50,000 per year – potentially forever if structured properly.

That $40-50k, combined with Age Pension, might be all you need. But nobody tells you this because they’re too busy telling you to “keep accumulating.”

Retirement Advice Mistake #2: “You Need Growth Assets in Retirement”

What they say:

“Keep 60-70% of your portfolio in growth assets like shares. You need growth to beat inflation!”

Why it’s wrong for you:

Growth assets are volatile. They go up and down with the market.

When you’re 30 and adding money every month, volatility doesn’t matter. Down markets are buying opportunities.

But when you’re 65 and withdrawing money every month, volatility can destroy your retirement.

Imagine retiring in 2007 with $800,000 in a growth portfolio. By 2009, it’s worth $500,000. Now you’re withdrawing from a depleted balance that needs to recover while you’re still taking money out.

This is how retirees run out of money.

What to do instead:

Focus on income-producing assets, not growth assets.

Think about the difference between speculating on asset price appreciation versus generating reliable cash flow.

Some investors chase capital gains – buying low, hoping to sell high. That’s risky, market-dependent, and uncertain timing.

Better approach: Own assets that produce reliable income – consistent cash flow you can live on – year after year, regardless of what the market is doing.

Your retirement portfolio should prioritize income generation – dividend-paying shares, income-focused managed funds, and structured withdrawal strategies. Not “growth assets” that you hope will be worth more when you need to sell them.

Retirement Advice Mistake #3: “Maximize Your Super Contributions”

What they say:

“Salary sacrifice as much as you can! Max out those concessional contributions!”

Why it’s wrong for you:

Sure, if you’re 40 with 25 years until retirement, max out your super. Great advice.

But if you’re 58? You might need that cash flow now – not locked away in super until you’re 60 or 65.

I see this constantly: couples in their late 50s living tight, sacrificing holidays and home improvements, pumping every spare dollar into super… then they retire and realize they can’t access half of it yet.

Meanwhile, they’ve missed years of actually enjoying their money while they’re healthy and active.

What to do instead:

Balance super contributions with lifestyle now.

If you’re 55+, consider:

  • Transition to Retirement (TTR) strategies that give you access to super while still working
  • Building savings outside super for that 60-65 “gap” period
  • Enjoying some of your money now instead of waiting until 67

Your 60s are often your healthiest, most active retirement years. Don’t sacrifice them to add an extra $50k to super that you won’t touch for a decade.

Retirement Advice Mistake #4: “Don’t Touch Your Home Equity”

What they say:

“Your home is your castle! Never sell it! It’s not counted in the Age Pension assets test!”

Why it’s sometimes wrong:

For some Balmain locals, their home is their biggest asset – worth $2.5-$3 million or more.

Meanwhile, they’re stressing about having “only” $500,000 in super.

They’re asset-rich and cash-poor, living frugally to avoid touching their super, all while sitting on a goldmine.

Sometimes – not always, but sometimes – strategic use of home equity can completely transform retirement.

What to do instead:

Consider your options:

Downsizing: If your $2.5M+ Balmain terrace is too big and expensive to maintain, selling and buying a $1.4M apartment frees up $1M+ (after costs) that you can put into super using downsizer contributions.

Equity release: Reverse mortgages get a bad rap, but for the right person, they can provide tax-free income while you stay in your home.

Renovate and stay: Sometimes the best move is keeping your home but releasing equity to renovate and age in place comfortably.

The point: Your home isn’t sacred. It’s an asset. And sometimes using it strategically makes more sense than stressing over super balances.

But most generic advice tells you to never touch it. That’s wrong.

Retirement Advice Mistake #5: “Wait Until 67 to Access Your Super”

What they say:

“Don’t touch your super early! Wait until preservation age! Let it grow!”

Why it’s wrong for you:

Your preservation age might be 60 (if you were born before 1964). So why would you wait until 67?

Because that’s when you can get the Age Pension?

Fair point. But what if you could retire at 60, live off your super for 7 years, and still qualify for Age Pension at 67 because you’ve drawn down your super strategically?

This is exactly what Transition to Retirement strategies enable.

What to do instead:

If you’re 55-60 and burnt out, explore:

  • TTR strategies that let you access super while still working (even part-time)
  • Phased retirement where you go part-time, supplement with super, and ease into full retirement
  • Strategic drawdown that positions you for maximum Age Pension at 67 while enjoying retirement earlier

Most people don’t know these strategies exist because generic advice assumes everyone retires at 67.

But you don’t have to. You might be able to retire at 60 or 62 – if someone shows you how.

Retirement Advice Mistake #6: “Ignore the Age Pension”

What they say:

“You should aim to be self-funded! The Age Pension won’t be there! Don’t rely on government handouts!”

Why it’s completely wrong:

The Age Pension isn’t a “handout.” You’ve paid taxes your entire working life. It’s an entitlement you’ve earned.

And it’s worth $27,000+/year for singles, $40,000+/year for couples.

Over 25 years of retirement, even a part Age Pension is worth $400,000-$500,000 in today’s dollars.

Ignoring it in your planning is financial malpractice.

What to do instead:

Understand the Age Pension assets test and structure your retirement to maximize entitlements.

“How the Age Pension Actually Works”

For many Balmain couples, this means:

  • Owning your home outright (not counted in assets test)
  • Keeping super + investments under $1M combined
  • Strategic timing of asset sales and super drawdowns

Do this right, and you might qualify for $15,000-$25,000/year in Age Pension – money you didn’t have to save for.

Do it wrong, and you might miss out on $300,000+ over your retirement because you “aimed to be self-funded.”

Retirement Advice Mistake #7: “Your Super Fund Doesn’t Matter”

What they say:

“All super funds are basically the same. Just pick one with low fees.”

Why it’s wrong:

Fees matter. But investment strategy matters more.

If your super fund is 70% growth assets and you’re 3 years from retirement, your “low fee” fund could lose 30-40% in a market crash.

Congratulations, you saved 0.2% in fees and lost $200,000 in a downturn.

What to do instead:

Review your super investment options and make sure your strategy matches your timeline.

If you’re retiring in 5-10 years:

  • Shift toward income-focused options
  • Reduce exposure to volatile growth assets
  • Consider capital preservation strategies
  • Understand exactly what you’re invested in

“Set and forget” works when you’re 30. It’s dangerous when you’re 60.

What Balmain Pre-Retirees Should Do Instead

Forget the generic formulas. Here’s what actually works:

“The $1 Million Retirement Myth”

1. Get a Personalized Plan

Not a template. Not a generic strategy. A plan built around YOUR situation:

  • Your super balance
  • Your home equity
  • Your Age Pension eligibility
  • Your actual lifestyle costs in Balmain
  • Your health, family, and goals

2. Focus on Income, Not Net Worth

Stop obsessing over whether you have “$1 million.”

Start asking: “Can I generate $60,000/year in income reliably?”

That’s the question that matters.

3. Understand Your Age Pension Entitlements

Most Balmain pre-retirees either:

  • Assume they won’t get any Age Pension (wrong)
  • Assume they’ll get the full Age Pension (also often wrong)

Find out where YOU actually stand. It could be worth $300,000+ over retirement.

4. Time Your Retirement Strategically

You don’t have to retire at 67. You might be able to retire at 60 or 63 with the right strategy.

Or you might want to work until 70 because you love your job.

Either way, it should be YOUR choice – not dictated by generic advice or arbitrary rules.

5. Use ALL Your Assets

Your retirement resources include:

  • Super
  • Home equity (if you choose)
  • Age Pension
  • Investments outside super
  • Part-time work if you want it

Don’t ignore any of them because some generic article told you to.

The Real Problem with Generic Advice

Generic retirement advice is designed to be “safe” – to avoid getting sued.

If an adviser tells everyone to “accumulate until 67, invest conservatively, and aim for $1.5M,” nobody can blame them if it doesn’t work perfectly.

But safe advice isn’t always good advice.

Good advice is personal. It accounts for your situation. Your goals. Your timeline. Your assets.

Good advice might tell you:

  • You can retire at 60 (not 67)
  • You need $700k (not $1.5M)
  • You should use your home equity (not lock it away forever)
  • You should go part-time now (not wait until you burn out)

But you’ll never get that advice from a generic article or a one-size-fits-all seminar.

You need someone who actually looks at YOUR numbers and YOUR life.

Stop Following Generic Advice

If you’re 50-65, living in Balmain or the Inner West, and trying to figure out your retirement plan, generic advice is worse than useless.

It’s actively misleading you.

You don’t need more information. You need relevant information.

You don’t need another article about “10 retirement tips.” You need someone to look at your specific situation and tell you what YOUR path forward looks like.

That’s what personalized financial planning actually does.

Ready for Advice That Actually Applies to You?

Stop wasting time on generic retirement advice that wasn’t designed for your situation.

Get a One Page Financial Plan built around YOUR specific circumstances – your super, your home, your goals, your timeline.

For $660 (inc GST), you’ll discover:

✓ Your real retirement income target (not a generic number)

✓ Whether you can retire sooner than you think

✓ A clear roadmap for your next steps

✓ 100% satisfaction guaranteed

One Page Financial Plan

???? Email: adam@suncow.com.au

???? Phone: 0418 785 200

The $1 Million Retirement Myth: What Balmain Pre-Retirees Actually Need

You’ve heard it everywhere. Financial magazines. News websites. That mate at the pub who “read somewhere” that…

“You need $1 million in super to retire comfortably in Australia.”

And every time you hear it, your stomach drops. Because you’re not even close to that number.

Maybe you’ve got $600,000 in super. Maybe $400,000. Maybe you’re sitting on $750,000 but it still feels like you’re falling short of some arbitrary finish line that keeps moving further away.

Here’s what nobody tells you: That million-dollar myth is costing Australians thousands in stress, lost sleep, and years of unnecessary work.

As a Balmain financial planner who’s helped hundreds of Inner West locals figure out their real retirement numbers, I can tell you this: Most people need significantly less than $1 million to retire comfortably. And the ones who discover this? They wish they’d known years ago.

Let me show you why.

Where Did This Million-Dollar Myth Come From?

The “$1 million to retire” number gets thrown around like it’s some kind of universal law. But where did it actually come from?

The truth? It’s a lazy, generic number that ignores:

  • Your actual lifestyle
  • Your Age Pension entitlements
  • Whether you own your home
  • Your location and living costs
  • Your specific income needs

It’s the financial equivalent of saying “everyone needs to eat 2,000 calories a day” – technically based on something, but completely useless for YOUR specific situation.

The million-dollar myth assumes you’re:

  • Entirely self-funded (no Age Pension)
  • Living in expensive CBD accommodation
  • Supporting the same lifestyle as when you were earning $150,000+
  • Planning for 30+ years of retirement
  • Keeping up with the Joneses

But what if that’s not you?

Your Retirement Number Isn’t What You Think

What Balmain Pre-Retirees Actually Need

Let’s talk real numbers for real people in Balmain and the Inner West.

What $600,000 in Super Actually Buys You

Scenario 1: The Comfortable Couple

Meet Sarah and John. They’re both 62, living in their Balmain home (mortgage paid off), with $650,000 combined in super.

According to the myth, they’re $350,000 short. They should keep working until 67, right?

Wrong.

Here’s their actual retirement income:

Super drawdown: $45,000/year (from $650k generating income)

Age Pension (part): $18,000/year (asset-tested but still eligible)

Total: $63,000/year

The ASFA Retirement Standard says a couple needs $72,000 for a “comfortable” retirement. But Sarah and John own their home outright in Balmain. No mortgage. No rent.

Their actual comfortable living costs? About $60,000/year.

They can retire NOW. Not in 5 years. Now.

They just needed someone to show them the numbers without the million-dollar nonsense.

Scenario 2: The Single Professional

David, 58, divorced, $420,000 in super, rents a small place in Rozelle for $450/week.

The myth says he’s nowhere near ready. He’s $580,000 short!

But look closer:

By 67, with modest contributions, his super grows to $580,000. Combined with a full Age Pension (singles get $27,000+/year), he’d have:

Super income: $25,000/year

Age Pension: $27,000/year

Total: $52,000/year

That covers his $23,400 rent plus $28,600 for everything else. ASFA says singles need $51,000 for comfortable retirement.

He’s fine. He just didn’t know it because everyone kept telling him he needed a million dollars.

Why the Myth Is So Dangerous

This million-dollar myth doesn’t just stress people out. It costs them real money and real years of their lives.

I see it constantly:

  • Couples working 5 extra years they didn’t need to, missing out on travel while they’re still healthy
  • People staying in jobs they hate because they think they’re “not ready”
  • Families delaying helping their kids with house deposits because they’re “too far behind”
  • Retirees living like paupers with $900,000 in the bank because they’re terrified of running out

The irony? Many of these people could have retired years earlier if someone had just shown them their REAL numbers instead of feeding them generic myths.

What Actually Determines Your Retirement Number

Forget the million. Here’s what actually matters:

1. Do You Own Your Home?

This is the biggest factor nobody talks about.

If you own your Balmain home outright, you immediately need $20,000-$30,000 LESS per year than someone paying rent or a mortgage.

Over 25 years of retirement, that’s $500,000-$750,000 difference.

Your home isn’t counted in the Age Pension assets test either. It’s the single biggest advantage Balmain homeowners have.

2. Your Age Pension Entitlements

The Age Pension currently provides:

Singles: $27,000+ per year

Couples: $40,000+ per year

Even a PART pension can be worth $15,000-$20,000 annually.

That’s like having an extra $500,000 in super generating 4% returns – except it’s guaranteed, indexed to inflation, and paid by the government for life.

Yet most people planning retirement completely ignore it or assume “it won’t be there.”

It will be there. And it matters enormously.

“How the Age Pension Actually Works”

3. Your Actual Lifestyle Costs

What do YOU actually spend?

Not what ASFA says. Not what your neighbour spends. What do YOU need to be comfortable?

Some Balmain couples I work with are perfectly happy on $55,000/year. Others want $80,000/year for travel and hobbies.

Neither is wrong. But your number is YOUR number – not some generic average.

4. Investment Income vs Lump Sum Thinking

Here’s where most people get it completely wrong.

They think retirement is about having a massive pile of cash that you slowly drain until you die (hopefully not before it runs out).

But there’s a better way: focus on generating sustainable income.

Instead of obsessing over your total super balance, focus on how much income it can reliably produce each year.

A well-structured $650,000 super balance can generate $45,000-$50,000 per year in retirement income – sustainably, year after year. You’re not draining your balance. You’re living off the income it produces.

“Retirement Income vs Lump Sum”

When you shift your thinking from “net worth” to “income,” suddenly that million-dollar target seems a lot less relevant.

The Real Question You Should Be Asking

Not: “Do I have $1 million?”

But: “Do I have enough income to live the life I want?”

Let’s say you need $65,000/year to be comfortable in Balmain:

Own your home: ✓

Age Pension (part): $20,000/year

Super income needed: $45,000/year

To generate $45,000/year sustainably, you need roughly $650,000-$750,000 in super (depending on your investment strategy and age).

Not a million. Not even close.

How to Find YOUR Real Number

Here’s a simple framework:

Step 1: Calculate your actual annual living costs

  • Housing (or not, if you own outright)
  • Food, utilities, insurance
  • Healthcare, travel, hobbies
  • “Life happens” buffer

Step 2: Check your Age Pension eligibility

Use the government’s Age Pension calculator or talk to someone who understands the asset test thresholds.

Age Pension calculator

Step 3: Calculate the gap

Annual costs MINUS Age Pension = Income needed from super

Step 4: Work backwards

Income needed ÷ 0.06 (6% sustainable withdrawal rate) = Super balance required

Example:

Need: $65,000/year

Age Pension: $20,000/year

Gap: $45,000/year

Super needed: $45,000 ÷ 0.06 = $750,000

Not a million. $750,000.

And if you’ve got $650,000 now? A few strategic moves (like transition to retirement, maximizing contributions, or optimizing your investment strategy) could get you there faster than you think.

Why Location Matters: The Balmain Advantage

Living in Balmain gives you unique retirement advantages:

Strong property values mean you’ve likely built significant equity. Even if you don’t want to downsize, knowing you’re sitting on $1.5-$2 million in property gives you options.

Excellent public transport reduces car dependency and costs. Many Balmain retirees find they can get by with one car or no car at all.

Proximity to healthcare – You’re close to quality medical services without CBD costs.

Community and culture – You can enjoy Sydney’s lifestyle without paying CBD prices for everything.

These factors mean Balmain locals often need LESS than the generic retirement figures suggest – not more.

What to Do If You’re “Behind”

Even if you’re genuinely short of your target, you’ve got options:

If you’re 50-55:

  • Transition to retirement strategies
  • Salary sacrifice top-ups
  • Downsizer contributions if over 55
  • 10-15 years of compound growth still ahead

If you’re 55-60:

  • Maximize catch-up contributions
  • Optimize Age Pension positioning
  • Consider phased retirement (part-time work + super drawdown)
  • Review investment strategy for income focus

If you’re 60-65:

  • Strategic property decisions (downsize? equity release?)
  • Centrelink optimization
  • Healthcare cost planning
  • Part Age Pension strategies

The point: It’s rarely too late. You just need someone to show you the actual path forward instead of the generic million-dollar myth.

The Bottom Line

You don’t need a million dollars to retire in Balmain.

You need:

  • A clear understanding of YOUR actual costs
  • Knowledge of your Age Pension entitlements
  • A super balance that generates enough income (not some arbitrary lump sum)
  • A strategy that accounts for your specific situation

For many Balmain pre-retirees, that number is $600,000-$800,000. Some need more. Some need less.

But almost nobody needs to chase the mythical million while sacrificing years of their life to get there.

Stop letting generic advice steal your retirement.

Ready to Know Your Real Number?

Forget the million-dollar myth. Find out what YOU actually need with a One Page Financial Plan designed for your Balmain lifestyle.

For $660 (inc GST), you’ll discover:

✓ Your real retirement income target (not some internet myth)

✓ Whether you’re on track or what needs to change

✓ A clear roadmap for your next steps

✓ 100% satisfaction guaranteed

One Page Financial Plan

???? Email: adam@suncow.com.au

???? Phone: 0418 785 200

AI Boom or Bubble?

In February, AI whiz Andrew Tulloch co-founded Thinking Machines Lab from scratch.

Less than 100 days later, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg offered him A$1.5 billion.

And Tulloch knocked it back.

Zuckerberg clearly thought it was cheap. Tulloch clearly thought he could make a lot more by keeping it.

Meanwhile, people are asking; Are we in an AI bubble?

By almost every measure… yes.

Right now, investors are paying up to $7 for every $1 of assets for AI stocks.

That’s like paying $7 million for a $1 million house.

The last time this happened was in the late ’90s when the internet exploded.

The information superhighway went from a dirt road to a 20-lane freeway overnight. The only bottlenecks were those screeching dial-up connections.

Everyone believed we were moving from ‘bricks and mortar’ to “clicks and order.”

And investors went mad for dot.com stocks.

I remember the MYOB float. The hype was insane and it’s stock price shot the lights out.

People thought accountants would soon be extinct. Today, the demand for accountants has never been stronger.

Meanwhile, Fairfax Media dismissed the whole internet thing as a fad.

Then the bubble burst.

Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon lost 67–95% of their value almost overnight.

For a moment, it looked like Fairfax was right.

Until…

A few years later, a bunch of e-commerce businesses emerged from the ashes.

Three in particular – Realestate.com, Seek.com, and Carsales.com – didn’t just survive.

They tore the classifieds straight out of the Sydney Morning Herald and each grew larger than Fairfax itself.

Now the SMH has shriveled into a flimsy tabloid the dog wouldn’t even fetch.

The same thing will happen with AI.

This bubble will burst and news bulletins will be flashing red.

However, some commentators reckon this isn’t as bad as the dot-com bubble because “AI companies are making money.”

But Microsoft and Apple were making money in 2000 and Amazon was close. That didn’t save them from a big fall.

Here’s the real risk: 95% of businesses pouring cash into AI aren’t seeing a return.

That’s why we’ve witnessed layoffs at ANZ, NAB, Facebook, with plenty more to follow.

But don’t write off AI just yet.

Because the pattern never changes.

Boom. Bust. Reinvention.

Andrew Tulloch just bet a billion bucks he can out-Zuck Zuckerberg.

Have a great weekend!

Adam

Back paddock – just when the caterpillar thought the world was coming to and end, it turned into a butterfly.

Happy Father’s Day

Recently, I farewelled one of my best mates of 37 years.

And just a few weeks before he drew his last breath, his wife asked if I could cook him dinner one final time.

I couldn’t reply fast enough.

His request was simple but yummy…

  • One perfectly cooked scotch fillet, medium rare
  • One homemade apple slice… with extra ice cream
  • And a bottle of his favourite red

As soon as I arrived, I made a beeline for the ‘vault.’

His temperature-controlled cellar was like stepping into oversized walk-in wardrobe, stacked floor to ceiling with the most amazing collection of wines.

I just stood and stared at the rows and rows of bottles, thinking about what he would have been thinking when he purchased them.

I eventually grabbed one of his favourites and shot upstairs to the kitchen.

Dinner was bang-on, and the big fella lasted longer than expected, given his condition.

But on the way home, I couldn’t stop thinking about his cellar.

It was peppered with wines he’d been saving for family milestones: the kids’ 21st birthdays, their university graduations, his 25th wedding anniversary next year…

But he won’t be here to open them.

It’s human nature to dream about the perfect moment, imagining how good it will be when it finally arrives.

But it’s just as easy to miss it too.

I’m not a father. But if I was, this is the advice I’d give to myself now…

Stop saving your best wine.

Happy Father’s Day!

Adam

Back paddock – memories are better than dreams

Housing Supply Truths

In the early nineties, when thin-rimmed glasses were making a comeback, property tycoon Harry Triguboff was making some eye-popping purchases.

The founder of Meriton apartments began purchasing rundown petrol stations and industrial wasteland next to noisy freeways.

His magnate mates thought he’d lost his marbles, but Triguboff saw things differently.

The real estate billionaire, who started out as a taxi driver, identified a massive cohort of people who didn’t want water views or grass beneath their feet.

They were first home buyers who wanted cheap, affordable, housing, regardless of the surroundings – as long as they had access to public transport and basic amenities.

Put simply, they just wanted a ‘box’ to live in and pay rent to the bank.

Triguboff’s read of the market was bang on and for the next three decades he continued building vertical villages all over Australia. Hence his nickname, ‘High-rise Harry’.

In recent years, the government has been at pains to point out we have a housing supply problem.

The truth is, Australia’s had a housing supply issue for decades. Every property developer and local council knows this. It’s nothing new.

However, supply side problems don’t exist without demand.

And it’s the demand side of the equation which the government refuses to acknowledge.

Specifically, immigration.

The problem is, no one dare mentions immigration for fear of being labelled a racist or a xenophobe.

So I’m going to say it, immigration is putting significant pressure on our housing and if it was managed more carefully it would certainly make a difference.

Here’s one example.

In 2021, the residential property market in China collapsed and despite all attempts by the Chinese government, they still can’t stimulate it.

Consequently, a great wall of Chinese investors saw the Australian property market as a safe haven to park their money.

And park it they did!

In 2023, Chinese investors were buying (on average) $8,000,000 worth of residential property in Australia…per day!

Back then, the median unit price in Australia was $692,862, which means Chinese investors were buying 11.5 units per day, or 4,214 units per year…and just as many sat empty.

Australia has since introduced a two-year ban (starting April 1, 2025) on foreign buyers purchasing established homes.

However, there are still loopholes (e.g., migrants who obtain citizenship can still buy).

In other words, the problem hasn’t been fixed, it’s been reworded.

But don’t get angry with the foreigners, it’s all our doing.

Last week, the Albanese Government accelerated its first-home buyer deposit guarantee.

This scheme allows first home buyers to purchase with just a 5% deposit, while the government guarantees up to 15% of the loan, enabling them to avoid lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).

Meaning, first-home buyers could save tens of thousands of dollars in LMI and shave years off the time it takes to save a deposit.

The package also includes a $10 billion investment to build up to 100,000 homes, exclusively for first home buyers.

Sounds impressive doesn’t it?

But there’s a problem…

In 2023, the federal government also introduced the Housing Australia Future Fund which was designed to finance the construction of 30,000 new social and affordable dwellings over the next five years.

Well guess what, as of March 2025, only 400 of those homes have been completed.

And now the government has promised another 100,000 homes in addition to the initial 30,000 it’s struggling to get out of the ground.

So what’s the solution?

The only fair and equitable way out of this mess is to match the number of new visas with new homes.

I.e. when construction levels increase, so do visas.

Immigration has always enriched Australia, but the issue is scale and timing.

When arrivals outpace construction, it becomes growth at all costs.

You can see it in our housing, hospitals, schools, and roads.

Australia’s housing crisis is more than a supply issue, it’s a demand problem.

Harry Triguboff could see it from the back seat of his taxi decades ago.

Have a great weekend!

Adam

Gifting the Kids

The mother sitting in front of me is death staring her husband.

And every time she argues her case, he rolls his eyes.

Her blood is simmering like lava.

And then she spins and death stares me…

“WHAT DO YOU THINK?!”, she says through a forced smile.

When she finds out what I really think, she’ll walk for sure. Worse, she’ll think I’ve sided with her husband. Which I haven’t.

Here’s the problem…

They have two sons in their late twenties struggling to scrape up a deposit for a home.

Their eldest is a tradie earning good coin but continually hoses it up against the wall every week on crap like expensive servo food and a flashy wardrobe.

Their youngest is renting an upmarket city apartment with his partner who refuses to go without.

Meanwhile, Mum and Dad are at war with each other like east versus west. Mum wants to gift them some money, Dad doesn’t.

You see, when they first married, they didn’t have a pot to pee in or a window to throw it out of.

To get started, she worked double shifts as a midwife while he was out before dawn driving trucks.

Now they’re in their late fifties, house paid off, and they’ve got some spare cash.

But Mum doesn’t want her boys to experience the same hardships while Dad doesn’t want to ruin them with gifts.

In his opinion, grit maketh the man, gifts don’t.

And neither of them received an inheritance either.

However, their boys will enjoy a very handsome inheritance, something the husband constantly reminds his wife.

But there’s another thorn in Mum’s side. Both her siblings have already given their kids a head start and if she doesn’t do the same, she’ll feel like a failure.

(Side note – how often do you see siblings and friends compare children?!)

And this is where gifting becomes a very tricky intersection to negotiate.

One road is paved with love and good intentions.

The other with guilt, fear, regret, or even redemption.

I often speak with parents wrestling with this exact dilemma.

Most have already done plenty for their children – good upbringing, education, opportunity to live at home instead of renting, handouts for cars, and so on.

Some people won’t like hearing this, but we’re often generous for selfish reasons. i.e. how it makes us feel.

So here’s the real question – whose pain are you trying to relieve — yours or theirs?

If it’s yours, I’m not sure money is the answer.

The couple in front of me are warring over the same thing. They want to gift their children.

The only difference is, Mum wants to gift them money, Dad wants to gift them grit.

Have a great weekend!

Adam

Back paddock – to a child, love is spelt T.I.M.E.

Gifting the Kids

The mother sitting in front of me is death staring her husband.

And every time she argues her case, he rolls his eyes.

Her blood is simmering like lava.

And then she spins and death stares me…

“WHAT DO YOU THINK?!”, she says with a forced smile.

When she finds out what I really think, she’ll walk for sure. Worse, she’ll think I’ve sided with her husband. Which I haven’t.

Here’s the problem…

They have two sons in their late twenties struggling to scrape up a deposit for a home.

Their eldest is a tradie earning good coin but hoses it up against the wall every week on crap like expensive servo food and a flashy wardrobe.

Their youngest is renting an expensive apartment in the city and his partner refuses to go without.

Meanwhile, mum and dad are at war with each other like east versus west. Mum wants to gift them some money, Dad doesn’t.

You see, when they first married, they didn’t have a pot to pee in or a window to throw it out of.

To get started, she worked double shifts as a midwife while he was out before dawn driving trucks.

Now they’re in their late fifties, house paid off, and they’ve got some spare cash.

But mum doesn’t want her boys to experience the same hardships while dad doesn’t want to ruin them with gifts.

In his opinion, grit maketh the man, not gifts.

Importantly, neither of them received an inheritance.

However, their boys will enjoy a very handsome inheritance, something the husband constantly reminds his wife.

But there’s another thorn in mum’s side. Both her siblings have already given their kids a head start and if she doesn’t do the same, she’ll feel like a failure.

(Side note – how often do you see siblings and friends compare children?!)

And this is where gifting becomes a very hazardous intersection.

One road is paved with love and good intentions.

The other with guilt, fear, regret, or even redemption.

I often speak with parents wrestling with this exact dilemma.

Most have already done plenty – good upbringing, education, living at home instead of renting, handouts for cars, and so on.

Some people won’t like hearing this, but we’re often generous for selfish reasons. i.e. how it makes us feel.

So here’s the real question… whose pain are you trying to relieve — yours or theirs?

If it’s yours, I’m not sure money is the answer. Because at what point is enough, enough?

The couple in front of me are warring over the same thing. They want to gift their children.

The only difference is, mum wants to gift them money, dad wants to gift them grit.

Have a great weekend,

Adam

Back paddock – to a child, love is spelt T.I.M.E

Busting Your Bills

Forty years ago, if you wanted to change TV channels, you had to move your bum instead of your thumb.

And if someone suggested you’d one day pay for streams of content, you would’ve laughed at them while hugging your precious VHS recorder.

Now look at us.

Most households have at least one streaming subscription if not a few: Netflix, Amazon, Foxtel, YouTube…

Why?

Because we live in the age of subscriptions.

And subscriptions work for two simple reasons:

  • They’re painless. $9.90 or $19.90 a month is easy to ignore.
  • They’re automatic. Direct debits mean no thinking, no friction.

If we don’t feel the pain, we keep paying. Often for stuff we barely use.

But while we were busy binge-watching recently, something else crept in on autopilot…

On July 1, households and small businesses copped another nationwide power hike — despite a grid full of promises they’d come down.

Spoiler alert: they won’t.

Why? Because AGL just bought two of its competitors.

And as usual, the ACCC and energy regulators stood around like an empty power station and did nothing.

They gave AGL a big green light and then looked the other way.

But here’s the good news: There are two simple ways to help ease the pain…

Suggestion #1: Treat Your Bills Like Subscriptions

Instead of getting walloped every quarter, smooth things out with smaller weekly payments.

Let’s say your power bill averages $500 every three months.

Break it down:

$500 ÷ 13 weeks = $38 pw

Set up a $40 automatic weekly payment (round up to stay ahead).

Or go one step further and open a separate “Bill Buster” bank account.

Each month, sweep in enough money to cover your big, lumpy expenses — power, rego, school fees, insurance, etc.

It’s one less thing to worry about and it feels pretty good finishing a quarter in credit instead of a crisis.

I’ve been doing this for years and it makes a big difference.

But this idea isn’t new. Our parents grew up this way.

They’d squirrel away a few bucks each week into jam jars and envelopes.

And if you were of good character, your local grocer and servo would even take your cheque!

The goal is simple: Get ahead of your bills… and stay there.

Suggestion #2: Be an Owner, Not Just a Consumer

If you’re already paying the power companies, why not own a slice?

Essential services like energy, banks, telcos, supermarkets can be excellent investments.

Why? Because they’re staples. They sell products we consume every day.

Which means two things:

They’re recession-proof (people still need power and groceries), and

They have serious pricing power during inflation (they just pass the costs onto you!).

And if you’ve got a green thumb and a grudge against fossil fuels, no worries.

Companies like Origin Energy are investing heavily in renewable tech.

That means a win for shareholders, customers, and yes… even the planet.

When the price is right, owning quality companies in these sectors can turn your bill pain into passive income.

But right now, the price isn’t right.

This market is like subscribing to Foxtel – overpriced, underwhelming and full of repeats.

Have a great weekend,

Adam

Back Paddock – a parent is only as happy as their unhappiest child.

What Happened to CBA?

In the past 12 months, CBA’s share price has climbed from $127 to $191 — a 50% gain.

Impressive, right?

And you’re probably thinking… “I should’ve bought some.”

Not so fast, tiger.

According to Morningstar — one of Australia’s most respected research houses — CBA’s fair value is closer to $90.

That suggests it’s trading at twice what it’s worth… and is vulnerable to a 50% correction.

And even if you bought CBA a year ago at $127, you were still overpaying by around 40%.

But it gets better… or worse.

CBA’s current dividend yield is just 2.6% — well below the 5–6% we’d typically expect.

So what does all this mean?

It means CBA’s not a smart buy.

Here’s why:

Right now, you can earn 3.6% on a 12-month term deposit with CBA — with zero risk.

But buy CBA shares, and you’ll cop a lower return (2.6%) and a truckload of volatility.

Simply put, investors are paying $2 for every $1 of value — and getting a smaller return than a CBA term deposit.

So why are investors piling into the market at all-time highs?

Some believe the worst is behind us after the tariff tantrums in March and April.

But nothing’s really changed — including Trump’s nickname on Wall Street…

TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.

Every time he threatens another tariff, he backs down.

Right now, these markets are amongst the most expensive in history.

And just to be clear — I’m not picking on CBA or suggesting there’s anything wrong with the bank itself.

I’m simply saying: there’s a long list of companies trading miles above fair value. Many — like CBA — could fall 40–50% in a proper correction.

I just picked a market darling and household name to make the point.

So if you’re wondering what to do…

You’re probably better off leaving your money in the banks than buying them.

Have a great weekend,

Adam

Back paddock – a parent is only as happy as their unhappiest child.

Information provided by Suncow Wealth is general in nature and does not take into consideration your personal financial situation. It is for educational purposes only and does not constitute formal financial advice. Remember, the value of any investment can go down as well as up. Before acting, you should consider seeking independent personal financial advice that is tailored to your needs. Suncow Wealth Pty Ltd is a Corporate Representative No.441116 of AFSL 342766.